Global FWI Monthly Forecasts
Outline of Fire Danger Products in the Global Fire EWS
The fire danger indicators currently presented on the Global Fire Early Warning System (Global Fire EWS) are components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. The Global EWS provides 1-10 day forecasted FWI System data based on the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s (CMC) Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS). The FWI System components are currently calibrated to commonly used threshold values that identify low to extreme conditions. As such, the Global EWS provides a means of comparing relative fire danger conditions between countries, continents, and biomes; and the 1-10 day forecast identifies the expected future fire danger trend. This type of information is often used for large-scale fire management decision-making such as planning cross-border suppression resource exchanges.
Although these indicators can be used to compare fire danger across the globe, the indicators are not calibrated to the local fire regime, which includes the influences of fuel, ignition sources, climate, fire management/suppression policy, etc. For that reason, the next stage in the development of this system is regional calibration to adjust the fire danger scales using historical fire data (primarily remotely sensed) and weather data. This will calibrate the fire danger indicators to provide operational-level information such as a potential for fire starts and difficulty of control. Regional calibration will be an on-going collaborative effort with regional and national agencies.
Source: GLOBAL FIRE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Information and Publications
Six Presidential Instruction in the National Coordination Meeting of Forest and Land Fire Control in 2021
Published: Senin, 22 Februari 2021 18:20 WIB
President Joko Widodo gave a number of directions at the 2021 National Coordination Meeting (Rakornas) to Control Forest and Land Fires (Karhutla) which was held at the State Palace, Jakarta, Monday, February 22, 2021. In his briefing President Joko Widodo emphasized at least six things related to forest and land fire control efforts.
The Information Forecast
Published: February 18, 2022
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
In mid-February, Sea Surface Temperatures remain below-average in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables is consistent with weak La Niña conditions, and therefore, a La Niña Advisory remains in place for Feb 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to stay below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Mar-May, and then return to ENSO-neutral levels in Apr-Jun 2022. Similar to the most-recent official CPC/IRI ENSO Outlook issued on February 10, 2022, this objective model-based ENSO outlook also predicts a continuation of the weak La Niña event with high probability during Mar-May. However, there is a slight disagreement between the two forecast methods on the dissipation of the current event. The objective model-based forecast shows transition to ENSO-neutral during Apr-Jun (60% chance), while subjective consensus indicates the same happening in May-Jul (56% chance).
Figures 1 and 3 (the official ENSO probability forecast and the objective model-based ENSO probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. There can be several reasons for differences. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. Another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast (Fig. 1) has just been updated, while the model-based forecasts (Figs. 3 and 4) are still from the third Thursday of the previous month. On the other hand, from the third Thursday of the month until the second Thursday of the next month, the model-based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second Thursday of the current month.
Click on the for more information on each figure.
The Information Hotspot in Southeast Asia Countries
The RFMRC-SEA was established in 2017 by the Faculty of Forestry – IPB University, Bogor – Indonesia, with the assistance of the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) and sponsorship of the German Federal Ministry for Food and Agriculture. The RFMRC-SEA is a Sendai Voluntary Commitment and serving the UNISDR International Wildfire Preparedness Mechanism.