Global FWI Monthly Forecasts
Outline of Fire Danger Products in the Global Fire EWS
The fire danger indicators currently presented on the Global Fire Early Warning System (Global Fire EWS) are components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. The Global EWS provides 1-10 day forecasted FWI System data based on the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s (CMC) Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS). The FWI System components are currently calibrated to commonly used threshold values that identify low to extreme conditions. As such, the Global EWS provides a means of comparing relative fire danger conditions between countries, continents, and biomes; and the 1-10 day forecast identifies the expected future fire danger trend. This type of information is often used for large-scale fire management decision-making such as planning cross-border suppression resource exchanges.
Although these indicators can be used to compare fire danger across the globe, the indicators are not calibrated to the local fire regime, which includes the influences of fuel, ignition sources, climate, fire management/suppression policy, etc. For that reason, the next stage in the development of this system is regional calibration to adjust the fire danger scales using historical fire data (primarily remotely sensed) and weather data. This will calibrate the fire danger indicators to provide operational-level information such as a potential for fire starts and difficulty of control. Regional calibration will be an on-going collaborative effort with regional and national agencies.
Source: GLOBAL FIRE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Information and Publications
Six Presidential Instruction in the National Coordination Meeting of Forest and Land Fire Control in 2021
Published: Senin, 22 Februari 2021 18:20 WIB
President Joko Widodo gave a number of directions at the 2021 National Coordination Meeting (Rakornas) to Control Forest and Land Fires (Karhutla) which was held at the State Palace, Jakarta, Monday, February 22, 2021. In his briefing President Joko Widodo emphasized at least six things related to forest and land fire control efforts.
The Information Forecast
Published: February 19, 2021
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections
In mid-February, SSTs in the east-central Pacific are roughly 1.1 degree C below average, and most key atmospheric variables are consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring. The new official CPC/IRI outlook issued earlier this month is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 82% chance of La Niña for the Feb-Mar-Apr season, and a likely transition in Apr-may-Jun. A La Niña advisory remains in effect.
Figures 1 and 3 (the official ENSO probability forecast and the objective model-based ENSO probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. There can be several reasons for differences. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. Another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast (Fig. 1) has just been updated, while the model-based forecasts (Figs. 3 and 4) are still from the third Thursday of the previous month. On the other hand, from the third Thursday of the month until the second Thursday of the next month, the model-based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second Thursday of the current month.
Click on the for more information on each figure.
The Information Hotspot in Southeast Asia Countries
The RFMRC-SEA was established in 2017 by the Faculty of Forestry – IPB University, Bogor – Indonesia, with the assistance of the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) and sponsorship of the German Federal Ministry for Food and Agriculture. The RFMRC-SEA is a Sendai Voluntary Commitment and serving the UNISDR International Wildfire Preparedness Mechanism.